It seems the Syrian regime is slowly winning the six years battle against the Syrian opposition. Moreover, Turkey has sold out the Syrian opposition, just to stop the Kurds.
It's not the first time that the Syrian regime makes local ceasefires with some armed groups of the opposition. But this time it is different since it’s all over Syria, including Aleppo. In reality, the
fighting is ongoing in Aleppo and in Daryya, the Damascus countryside.
Aleppo and Daryya are still being besieged step by step by the regime. This leads to some questions: "Why the regime makes truces when it doesn't commit itself to them? Or what goals does it try to achieve?" Assad, Russia and Iran know very well that as long as parts of Aleppo city are out of their control, they would not be able to enforce the opposition and its allies to accept their solutions, in Geneva or elsewhere. And
Aleppo, would be divided like Berlin was divided by the Berlin wall in the past.
Therefore, the Syrian regime decided to attack in order to prevent the creation of a Syrian interim government without Assad. The Syrian regime is trying to benefit from the regional and international changes to
take control of the opposition-held areas. Aleppo and Daryya, as the last opposition's strongholds, must be controlled before any new Geneva meeting. So, declaring a ceasefire was important to stop the fighting in some places, to be able to send enforcements to the both above mentioned strongholds of the opposition.
For the regime, recapturing Castello road means that the road of life for tens of opposition groups and hundred of thousands of civilians will be cut and those people will be encircled without any chance of getting supplies, food and so on. This would result in a humanitarian crisis in the eastern part of Aleppo. Afterward, the Syrian rebel groups will be weakened in Aleppo, and might be forced to make a disputation
with the regime like the one in Zabadani town of Damascus on September 24th, 2015, and hand the city to the regime, or to fight till the end there.
In the meantime, Assad's troops are making progress near Damascus which could lead to the whole of Damascus' countryside ending up in the regime's hands, securing the capital.
The regime's new offensives were immediately launched after the new deal between Turkey, Israel, and Russia, and maybe also Assad. Furthermore, the Americans are talking about making a deal with Russia to fight Al-Nusra, one of the strongest Syrian rebel factions. The Syrian opposition backed by Turkey and Gulf countries have two options now: fight to the last man, or to give up to the Syrian army.
But why Turkey changed its mind? It's clear that Turkey is unhappy with the Western support for the Kurdish fighters in Northern Syria. Turkey knows the US government will not change its policy before the US elections are over. This while Europe is busy with its internal crises. Turkey knew that if it would not change its foreign policy, the three canton administrations announced by the Kurds would be united. That’s why Turkey decided to make a deal with Russia, in order to stop federalism in northern Syria. It’s easier for Turkey to give up on the Syrian rebels, since the biggest threat in the eyes of Turkey is not Assad, but the Kurds.
The Turkish foreign policy shift may bring obstacles for the Kurdish project, and may push Russia away from the Kurds. It will also finish the Syrian opposition, and terrorist-designated groups such as Nusra will be fought by Turkey. Turkey decided to follow its own interests only, just to prevent the Syrian Kurds from having their federal state in northern Syria.
* Idris Nassan is the former deputy head of the foreign affairs commission in the self-administration of Kobani, Rojava, Northern Syria.
[The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily represent the views of BasNews]